穆彰阿、姚莹与“台湾之狱”

首席军机大臣穆彰阿在道光朝“台湾之狱”中起着至关重要的作用，正是穆彰阿与耆英、伊里布、黄恩彤等人内外联手制造了“台湾之狱”。与达洪阿相比，姚莹是“台湾之狱”的主要受害者。     

刑事法律制度差异对海峡两岸合作打击跨境犯罪的影响及对策研究

大陆地区和台湾地区的刑事法律制度存在较大差异,必将影响海峡两岸共同合作打击跨境犯罪工作的开展。海峡两岸应在《海峡两岸共同打击犯罪及司法互助协议》框架下,在协商互信的基础上,本着对两岸刑事法律制度差异的清晰认识,采取合理、有效的刑事对策弱化其对两岸合作打击跨境犯罪的影响。     

TERRORISM: FACTS FROM FIGURES 1

If international terrorism is on a rising trend, an important source of confirmation or refutation of this is time‐series data on terrorist activity. Using chiefly data collected by the RAND/MIPT consortium we show using basic statistical analysis that in the period 1968–2005 the yearly number of all international terrorist incidents shows no trend over time, but fluctuates year on year in a random manner. On the other hand some indicators do show a definite trend over time, principally the steady rise in the number of incidents that are death‐dealing in nature. A further conclusion is drawn, showing that the proportion of these incidents leading to deaths above a given level is virtually fixed.     

The Economic Consequences of the Libyan Spring: A Synthetic Control Analysis

Abstract

In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi’s dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method. Our estimates for the 2011–2014 period show (i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; (ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and (iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.     

海峡两岸人员往来的法律制度比较

大陆和台湾地区同属一个国家--中国.但由于特殊的历史原因,导致了两岸至今的现状,并在人员往来方面采用了各自不同的出入境制度.就两地的出入境制度作一系统的比较,从而发现联系与区别,以便完善大陆出入境法律制度,更好地促进两岸的交流与发展.     

Defence Spending and Income Inequality in Taiwan

The rising trend in income inequality has recently attracted a renewed interest in the determinants of this growing trend across many countries. This article adds to the debate by investigating the impact of defence expenditure as a possible determinant of inequality in Taiwan, a country once was considered to be a poster child of an equitable growth, but now income inequality has become one of the Taiwan’s growing challenges. Applying the bounds test approach to cointegration and four long-run estimators for the period from 1976–2011, we found a long-run relationship between the various measures of inequality and defence expenditure where defence expenditure exerts a positive and a statistically significant impact on the worse income inequality in Taiwan. Further application of the lag-augmented causality test procedure also reveals a unidirectional causality running from defence expenditure to income inequality with defence expenditure causing income inequality to rise.     

海峡两岸打击跨境毒品犯罪警务合作机制研究

在全球毒品问题继续蔓延的趋势下,海峡两岸跨境毒品犯罪愈演愈烈。要有效遏制毒品犯罪给海峡两岸社会治安带来的危害,海峡两岸的警察机关应不断完善跨境追逃合作机制、犯罪资产追缴协助机制、调查取证协助机制,健全毒品犯罪情报交流机制,构建区际“控制下交付”合作机制,逐步拓宽打击跨境毒品犯罪警务合作渠道,以有效遏制海峡两岸毒品犯罪的发展蔓延。     

THE LONG‐RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN DEFENCE EXPENDITURES AND GDP IN TAIWAN

Using the Solow–Swan growth model and the time‐trend included in the aggregate production function, this study applies the multivariate cointegration approach to re‐investigate the long‐run and causal relationships between defence expenditures and GDP while controlling for capital and labour input in Taiwan during the 1955–2002 period. It examines the long‐run causal relationship using the weak exogeneity test and utilizes general impulse response functions to determine whether a shock to defence expenditures affects economic growth or vice versa. Our findings provide substantive evidence in favour of the existence of a long‐run equilibrium cointegrated relationship between defence expenditures, GDP, labour and capital stock. The results of the weak exogeneity test indicate that a bi‐directional causal relationship exists in the long‐run between defence expenditures and GDP. Thus, the main policy implication that emerges from the long‐run results is that increasing defence expenditures in Taiwan is an effective means to boost overall economic performance and, with this improved economy, it should then be able to increase its defence expenditures further. Lastly, from our dynamic vector error correction model estimations, it is found that defence expenditures are a major means of adjusting for disequilibria that occur within the system.     

STRATEGIC TRADE CONTROLS IN TAIWAN

Because it is a producer and supplier of high-tech dual-use goods as well as a major transit point for WMD-related and military items, Taiwan represents an important case study of national export control systems. Taiwan is not an official member of the major multilateral export control regimes, yet it remains committed to nonproliferation goals. The article explores the strategic trade controls of Taiwan within the context of its nonproliferation policies and commitments. The author discusses the strong and weak aspects of Taiwan's strategic trade controls by looking in detail at key components of the country's export-import control system: legal basis, licensing system, enforcement and compliance mechanism, government-industry outreach, and adherence to nonproliferation treaties and multilateral export control regimes.     

The Finger on the Button

Taiwan's international status is such that the country's ability to trade and to supply certain goods and technologies remains its primary means of practicing diplomacy and asserting international influence. U.S. pressure to conform to international nonproliferation standards has made the issue of export controls a troubling one for Taiwan. Limiting Taiwan's economic relations affects its ability to sustain itself economically and to maintain productive relations with other nations. On the other hand, as a recipient of U.S. high-technology transfers and security assurances, Taiwan cannot ignore the directives of the United States. The article focuses on this dilemma and how a shift in power to the Democratic Progressive Party is affecting Taiwan's choice between placing limitations on its global economic power or risking being cut off from U.S. technology and losing U.S. security assurances. In order to address this challenge properly, Taiwan will need to reassess its fundamental economic and security interests.